Oil Market Report: Q2 2025

Q2 2025 included two major geopolitical events that could have triggered extreme moves in the Brent oil price, but didn’t. The first was President Trump’s “Liberation Day” 2 April announcement on extensive global tariffs. The second was the TwelveDay War that began on 13 June between Israel and Iran. Each of these events did cause the oil price to rise, however, neither increase was extreme or sustained.

The reaction to these events signalled that the market believes that a strong supply of crude coming into the market can outweigh the security of supply risk caused by these events, thus dampening oil prices.

SW Tenet’s analysis of the global oil market sees the following as being critical oil market drivers.

• Global economic growth uncertainties and trade frictions
• Supply-demand balance and inventory build
• OPEC+ production decisions and market sentiment