Oil Market Report: Q3 2025

Q3 2025 proved to be much less tumultuous than Q2, which saw two major geopolitical events, President Trump’s “Liberation Day” on 2 April, announcing extensive global tariffs, and the 12 Day War between Israel and the US against Iran, which began on 13 June.

Nevertheless, the Brent crude oil price did spike up to US$73.24, due to the market’s reaction to Trump’s sanction threats against Russian export sales, particularly to India and China. Otherwise, Brent crude traded throughout Q3 in a tight range between US$65.50 and US$70/bbl, while opening and closing Q3 almost unchanged at slightly over US$67/bbl.

Tenet’s analysis of global oil markets sees the following as being critical oil market drivers in Q3:

• Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East
• OPEC+ actions and supply–demand balance / inventory build
• Global economic growth uncertainty and trade frictions